Skip to content

      Insights

      Consensus estimates

      Hydro Investor Relations compiles consensus estimates of Hydro's results every quarter based on the estimates provided by sell-side analysts covering Hydro. See the most recent sell-side analyst consensus collected by Hydro.

      Pre Q3 sell side analyst consensus estimates as of October 14th, 2024, are available below.

      Consensus is based on the estimates provided by the following analysts:

      Consensus 2025-Q1 2025-Q2 Yearly average
      Segment Average Low High Average FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028
      Number of observations 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 7
      Revenues 57066 50440 60136 53091 2,09,826 2,10,377 2,18,181 2,33,341
      Bauxite & Alumina 5687 4554 6064 3211 13076 8017 7621 7501
      Aluminium Metal 2506 2281 2759 2870 11830 13967 14730 16003
      Metal Markets 196 148 323 263 1082 1694 1929 2304
      of which Recycling 46 25 56 86 420 974 1304 1674
      Extrusions 1109 858 1245 1196 4345 6056 7015 7903
      Energy 1172 1005 1250 692 3457 3331 3171 3254
      Other and eliminations -807 -1090 -350 -85 -1264 -1110 -1050 -1153
      Adjusted EBITDA 9864 9051 10482 8148 32526 31957 33416 35812
      Adjusted EBIT 7254 6601 7869 5554 22754 21546 22484 24489
      Financials net ex. FX -371 -553 -148 -349 -1401 -1118 -1049 -552
      Adjusted income before tax 6827 5947 7422 5146 20830 19978 21308 23725
      Tax -2087 -2882 -1487 -1460 -6158 -5939 -6300 -6807
      Minorities -633 -1280 400 -320 -1.422 -1186 -1092 -1049
      Adjusted Net Income 4122 3060 5331 3309 13189 12819 13882 15812
      Adjusted EPS, NOK/share 2.14 1.55 2.71 1.67 6.79 6.58 7.13 8.06
      Tax rate, % 0.29 0.24 0.33 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
      Shares average, # shares 1980 1965 1998 1980 1977 1977 1977 1976
      Dividend, NOK/share (FY only)         3.68 3.96 4.55 5.37
      Investments, MNOK 3473 2900 3800 3593 14688 14514 14355 14757
      Free cash flow's, MNOK 2921 -518 7127 3829 11551 9127 10819 12704
      Change in working capital2), MNOK -237 -1859 2824 1631 1708 -887 -566 -674
      Adjusted Net Debt 21647 17050 26133 22392 16835 14949 11801 6888
      Assumptions and Operational
      Realized aluminium price ex. Premium, USD/mt (avg) 2551 2500 2572 2562 2531 2531 2572 2724
      Realized aluminium price ex. Premium, USD/mt (median) 2554 2500 2572 2567 2535 2561 2588 2700
      Realized aluminium price ex. Premium, NOK/mt 28202 27114 29077 27249 27.122 26759 27104 28407
      Realized premium above LME, USD/mt 410 400 425 388 393 394 395 409
      Realized all-in price, USD/mt 2961 2925 2982 2950 2925 2925 2967 3133
      Realized alumina price, USD/mt 588 560 613 465 476 410 405 413
      Southwest Norway spot price (NO2), NOK/MWh 727 502 817 538 601 578 578 600
      Alumina production, kmt 1522 1443 1575 1535 6136 6139 6139 6181
      Primary Aluminium production, kmt 515 503 555 516 2072 2116 2130 2177
      Total sales Aluminium Metal, kmt 556 527 624 565 2238 2275 2298 2351
      Total sales Extrusions, kmt 258 249 270 265 1006 1096 1167 1289
      Power production, TWh 2714 2524 2985 2073 9496 9504 9550 9456
      USD/NOK 11.05 10.62 11.35 10.64 10.71 10.57 10.54 10.42
      USD/BRL 5.85 5.49 6.08 5.78 5.79 5.75 5.75 5.8
       

      12 estimates for Q3:

      • Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Pareto Securities, RBC, Nordea, Exane BNP Paribas, SEB, ABG Sundal Collier, DNB, Handelsbanken, SB1

      12 estimates for Q4:

      • Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Pareto Securities, RBC, Nordea, Exane BNP Paribas, SEB, ABG Sundal Collier, DNB, Handelsbanken, SB1

      12 estimates for FY 2024-2027:

      • Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Pareto Securities, RBC, Nordea, Exane BNP Paribas, SEB, ABG Sundal Collier, DNB, Handelsbanken, SB1

      7 estimates for FY 2027:

      • Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, RBC, SEB, DNB, Handelsbanken

      Disclaimer: The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures, in addition to high and low for the recently finished quarter, for that item submitted to Hydro by participating analysts from sources published by them. The consensus figures represent the analyst estimates available at the time of publication of the consensus figures on Hydro’s website, and do not reflect any changes in analysts’ estimates from that date and until the next publication date. Any opinions, forecasts, estimates, projections or predictions regarding Hydro’s performance and market prices made by the analysts, and thereby also the consensus estimates, are theirs alone and do not in any way represent the opinions, forecasts, estimates, projections or predictions of Hydro or its management. In providing these consensus figures, Hydro does not imply its endorsement of, or concurrence with, such information. The consensus figures are provided for information purposes only and should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. Hydro is not authorized to and is not providing any investment advice. Although Hydro intends to update this information periodically, Hydro assumes no obligation to do so.